$AMAL • Regional Banks
Amalgamated Financial Corp (AMAL): A Stable Regional Bank with Upside Potential to $35
1) Technical Overview
AMAL has been correcting from its summer highs around $35–36 and recently stabilized in the $28–29 range with early recovery signs.
- Resistance: $29.80 (SMA50), $32.07 (SMA200), $35 (June–July pivot)
- Support: $28.00 and $25.00
A decisive break above $32 on strong volume could unlock a move toward $35.
Key Snapshot
P/E (ttm)
8.74
8.74
Forward P/E
7.06
7.06
ROE
14.78%
14.78%
Debt/Equity
0.12
0.12
Dividend Yield
~1.85%
~1.85%
Payout Ratio
13.37%
13.37%
2) Fundamental Strength
AMAL appears undervalued based on earnings, maintains solid return metrics, and runs a conservative payout structure with room for dividend increases. Low leverage supports resilience.
3) Insider & Institutional Positioning
Insider Ownership: 39.26%
Institutional Ownership: 64.45%
High insider alignment, strong institutional participation, no meaningful dilution in recent years, and even some buybacks.
Float Structure
High insider ownership can reduce float and increase volatility — both a risk and an opportunity depending on market conditions.
4) Capital Flow & Options Activity
- Option Order Flow: Bullish (+480 delta volume)
- Big Money Flow: Net inflows from institutions
- Option Fear Gauge: Low (2.9% vs. 3.5% average)
These could act as a catalyst if price reclaims $32 with momentum, pushing toward $35.
5) My View & Scenario
- Fundamental stability — profitable, low leverage, stable dividends, no serial dilution.
- Positive sentiment — institutional accumulation, bullish options tape.
- Technical setup — clearing $32 could quickly target $35.
Base Case: Hold $28 support → Break $32 → Target $35 if sector tone remains constructive.
6) Risks
- Macro/Sector: Fed policy shifts, regional bank sentiment.
- Structure: high insider ownership can tighten float.
- Market Mode: risk‑off could delay breakout.
© Tabiki Invest — Research & Insights
Educational content, not investment advice.