Three Real-Time Setups Where the Crowd Is Wrong — and the Market Maker Is About to Act
Today I’m tracking three stocks where a familiar dynamic is unfolding: the crowd expects continuation,
while the market maker prepares for the opposite move. These are live, still-active setups — not hindsight analysis —
and each could offer an opportunity if read correctly.
1. NIO — The Calm Before a Potential Drop
Crowd: “Holding above $7 — the trend must be changing.”
Market maker: Selling calls, reducing exposure; net option delta roughly −235K across recent sessions.
Scenario: Likely retracement toward $5.2–$5.3 where liquidity can be absorbed before the next cycle. Setup remains actionable on weakness and failed bounces.
Confirmation: persistent negative delta, weak rallies into $7.6–$8.2 with fading volume.
2. ZION — A False Recovery
Crowd: “Break above the 200-day MA means we’re back in a bull trend.”
Market maker: Uses the bounce to distribute inventory into demand from late buyers.
Scenario: Possible reversal if price stays below $52. Short setups improve on failed pushes and lower-highs near moving averages.
Watch for shrinking green volume on advances and quick rejections at prior supply zones.
3. PSNL — The Euphoria Trap
Crowd: “Clean breakout above resistance — momentum will carry this higher.”
Market maker: Finishes distribution by selling into breakout enthusiasm to exit at premium prices.
Scenario: A move back below $9 confirms a short trigger with a target toward $7.
Watch for upper wicks on high volume near breakout and failure to build value above resistance.
Trading Notes
- These are real-time observations for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
- The edge comes from mismatches between crowd perception and dealer hedging behavior.
- Best entries appear after failed retests and lower highs with persistent negative delta.
The crowd has already placed its bets. The question is whether you’ll follow them — or align with how the market maker hedges and distributes.